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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 17:40:02 GMT
...we win at Sutton.
If that doesn't happen, then barring goal difference madness, any TWO of the below will see us safe:
Torquay fail to win at Dover
York fail to win at Woking
Braintree fail to beat Barrow at home
Guiseley lose at Bromley
Solihull lose at home to Eastleigh (because they play Guiseley on the last day and they wouldn't both be able to catch us)
I think we'll be sorted by 5pm on Saturday, but how ridiculous that we're even worrying about this.
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Post by Matt on Apr 17, 2017 18:08:44 GMT
Very ridiculous to be in this position, I thought we'd be comfortable late February, early march! 7/8 clean sheets in a row? 17 unbeaten at one point. I don't understand where it can all go wrong so bad!
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Post by Derry Blue on Apr 17, 2017 18:16:07 GMT
...we win at Sutton. If that doesn't happen, then barring goal difference madness, any TWO of the below will see us safe: Torquay fail to win at Dover York fail to win at Woking Braintree fail to beat Barrow at home Guiseley lose at Bromley I think we'll be sorted by 5pm on Saturday, but how ridiculous that we're even worrying about this. I too think we're OK. It's what happens next that is our problem. |
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Post by poolepirate on Apr 17, 2017 18:16:49 GMT
We should be thankful that we had a run of games when we didn't concede many /any goals
Our good goal difference compared to other teams below us is like a point at the end of the day
I may be wrong but with Woking having to play York and guisley to play Solihull if we lose both of our games and the rest of the teams win theirs (the above 4 teams all winning one game)we would stay up on goal difference
Anyone agree with this calculation?
It seems highly unlikely all teams below us will get maximum points but this is football and Chester we are talking about
I have discounted Southport and North ferriby as they can't catch us now and i believe both are now relegated
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Post by Matt on Apr 17, 2017 18:25:25 GMT
What's interesting is after today we have been removed from all bookies to go down.
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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 18:47:09 GMT
Worryingly, it's almost exactly the same position we were in with two games to go last season, and it turned out that we did actually need the win we got at Grimsby to give us a stress free last game as all the other results went against us, including Halifax winning at FGR. The only difference is that we went into that game on a positive note having won 4-0 the weekend before and got rid of Burr.
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Post by Browser on Apr 17, 2017 18:53:38 GMT
I make it that if Solihull lose next week then at least one of them and Guiseley would be unable to get more points than us as they play each other on the last day.
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Post by Rio Doherty on Apr 17, 2017 19:02:03 GMT
It's very worrying to rely on other results. I even thought in March we would be safe, but I'm not worried about now. I'm concerned for next season if we carry on our current form.
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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 19:02:09 GMT
I make it that if Solihull lose next week then at least one of them and Guiseley would be unable to get more points than us as they play each other on the last day. Yes, good spot. We can add Solihull losing at home to Eastleigh to the permeatations. |
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Post by MOC on Apr 17, 2017 19:16:15 GMT
Woking v York looks a huge one next week, the sort of game where it would suit us if they are both so petrified of losing that they cancel each other out and draw. I certainly wouldn't say York's survival is guaranteed, particularly after they lost today. They remind me of us in 2000 in that they've done very well to overturn the deficit but the amount of work they've had to do has left little margin for error.
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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 19:17:57 GMT
Woking v York looks a huge one next week, the sort of game where it would suit us if they are both so petrified of losing that they cancel each other out and draw. I certainly wouldn't say York's survival is guaranteed, particularly after they lost today. They remind me of us in 2000 in that they've done very well to overturn the deficit but the amount of work they've had to do has left little margin for error. Similar to what happened to Halifax last season as well. |
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Post by agl on Apr 17, 2017 19:26:27 GMT
What's interesting is after today we have been removed from all bookies to go down. First piece of good news for a while. Can someone please work out if we are safe as I'm literally having sleepless nights about relegation. Is there a possible combination that would allow us to go down, barring silly swings in GD? If the bookies aren't taking bets that suggests we may be safe already? |
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Post by sirfred on Apr 17, 2017 19:27:48 GMT
Solihull can lose to Eastleigh and beat Guiseley and finish on 54 points and Guiseley can draw to Bromley and beat Solihull and finish on 53 points so that's not too difficult to imagine considering of course we lose next 2
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Post by sirfred on Apr 17, 2017 19:30:32 GMT
Sorry that makes no sense
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Post by Matt on Apr 17, 2017 19:33:12 GMT
What's interesting is after today we have been removed from all bookies to go down. First piece of good news for a while. Can someone please work out if we are safe as I'm literally having sleepless nights about relegation. Is there a possible combination that would allow us to go down, barring silly swings in GD? If the bookies aren't taking bets that suggests we may be safe already? Bookies haven't taken bets on us for 2 weeks strange enough but the only way we could go down now is if we were to conceded 15+ in the next 2 games. With the teams below us having to play each other next week and 2 other teams are on the last day of the season all teams can't possibly over take us. |
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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 19:37:31 GMT
What's interesting is after today we have been removed from all bookies to go down. First piece of good news for a while. Can someone please work out if we are safe as I'm literally having sleepless nights about relegation. Is there a possible combination that would allow us to go down, barring silly swings in GD? If the bookies aren't taking bets that suggests we may be safe already? We're not safe and could still go down on points, but it would take a number of results to go against us, and the bookies have obviously decided it's too unlikely to really consider it. It would take five results out of six (in the games involving ourselves, Torquay, Braintree, York, Guiseley and Solihull) to go against us for us not to be safe next Saturday, and even if they do it will still be in our hands (if that's a good thing) the weekend after. |
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Post by agl on Apr 17, 2017 19:38:42 GMT
That's not true. We were 33-1 before the Forest Green game. I had a look.
They were still also offering on Maidstone who were above us at the time ...125-1
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Post by Johnnybling on Apr 17, 2017 20:46:48 GMT
First piece of good news for a while. Can someone please work out if we are safe as I'm literally having sleepless nights about relegation. Is there a possible combination that would allow us to go down, barring silly swings in GD? If the bookies aren't taking bets that suggests we may be safe already? We're not safe and could still go down on points, but it would take a number of results to go against us, and the bookies have obviously decided it's too unlikely to really consider it. It would take five results out of six (in the games involving ourselves, Torquay, Braintree, York, Guiseley and Solihull) to go against us for us not to be safe next Saturday, and even if they do it will still be in our hands (if that's a good thing) the weekend after. Anyone remember the Hereford scenario we were looking at 4/6 permetations and the bloody lost went against us that year! |
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Post by Lobster on Apr 17, 2017 21:22:16 GMT
Looking at it, we would actually have been 99.9% safe if we'd just held on for draw today, as it would've meant one of Woking and York couldn't catch us with them playing each other. The only slight risk would've been Torquay making up a seven-goal swing.
It's taken a monumental effort for us to stuff up this season so badly. Up there with the Keith Curle season.
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Post by agl on Apr 17, 2017 21:31:49 GMT
Sorry to bang on about this but if we are not safe I don't understand why the bookies are not offering long odds on us to go down. It's quite likely we will lose both remaining games.
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Post by Blue Army on Apr 17, 2017 22:09:20 GMT
We were 25/1 before today's game
But like people have mentioned not on the betting now!
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Post by CW6 on Apr 17, 2017 22:14:14 GMT
I have analysed the table in detail and have drawn the following conclusions:
We need two from Torquay, Braintree, York and Guiseley to not win next Saturday and - barring a meltdown the following Saturday - we will be safe.
Torquay are away at Dover. Very tough as Dover going all out for play-off spot.
Braintree at home to Barrow. Tough but Barrow may know the play-off spot is beyond them, particularly as Aldershot are away at North Ferriby.
York away at Woking. Well....Woking aren't safe either and may want to go out and win.
Guiseley away at Bromley. Should be a home win but who knows.
Getting more and more tight. Of course, win at Sutton and there is nothing to worry about...
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Post by Disgruntled on Apr 18, 2017 0:22:11 GMT
Looking at it, we would actually have been 99.9% safe if we'd just held on for draw today, as it would've meant one of Woking and York couldn't catch us with them playing each other. The only slight risk would've been Torquay making up a seven-goal swing. It's taken a monumental effort for us to stuff up this season so badly. Up there with the Keith Curle season. Dont compare this team to Keith Curles team , they werent getting paid . The current team ,as far as i know are getting paid |
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Post by Disgruntled on Apr 18, 2017 0:25:05 GMT
Sorry to bang on about this but if we are not safe I don't understand why the bookies are not offering long odds on us to go down. It's quite likely we will lose both remaining games. After what happened two seasons ago they may see us as cast iron certainties ! |
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Post by prodigal on Apr 18, 2017 0:49:49 GMT
If we don't get another point, York,Torquay and Braintree all have to win their last two games to relegate us..simples!
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Post by Lobster on Apr 18, 2017 5:24:15 GMT
If we don't get another point, York,Torquay and Braintree all have to win their last two games to relegate us..simples! Not all of them need to win both, just two out of three of them, but there are other clubs who could save us too, like Guiseley, Woking and Solihull, so not that simples! |
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Post by Lobster on Apr 18, 2017 5:26:03 GMT
Sorry to bang on about this but if we are not safe I don't understand why the bookies are not offering long odds on us to go down. It's quite likely we will lose both remaining games. After what happened two seasons ago they may see us as cast iron certainties ! I think it's more that they're not advertising odds rather than not offering them. If you ask a ookies for odds against Chester finishing bottom four I'm sure they'll give you them. |
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Post by Duck on Apr 18, 2017 11:15:44 GMT
I think the likelihood of the number of other teams required getting the results they need over the next two games is very unlikely, so I'm not too worried, but it's still frustrating that we've come this close in the end. I don't expect us to get any more points however, so entirely dependant on other results!
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Post by Disgruntled on Apr 20, 2017 1:04:26 GMT
...we win at Sutton. If that doesn't happen, then barring goal difference madness, any TWO of the below will see us safe: Torquay fail to win at Dover York fail to win at Woking Braintree fail to beat Barrow at home Guiseley lose at Bromley Solihull lose at home to Eastleigh (because they play Guiseley on the last day and they wouldn't both be able to catch us) I think we'll be sorted by 5pm on Saturday, but how ridiculous that we're even worrying about this. Ha Ha we would have to pay them to kick the ball in their own net to have any chance of winning |
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Post by true results on Apr 20, 2017 9:17:08 GMT
Very ridiculous to be in this position, I thought we'd be comfortable late February, early march! 7/8 clean sheets in a row? 17 unbeaten at one point. I don't understand where it can all go wrong so bad!
and we never had a 17 game unbeaten run in the league,
it was 7 unbeaten !!Of course our stange manager has a way of using statistics ! Anyway he and Burr were responsible for dragging us into a relegation battle last season , and this time he ( Mac , Jon, muppet, raincoat ; whatever you like to call him ) has been solely responsible for the farcial end to the season! Please do the right thing and resign . Results as per CFC site, not the raincoat site ! www.chesterfc.com/fixtures-results/fixtures-list/ |
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