|
Post by chesterifa on Mar 13, 2024 15:04:23 GMT
At the risk of massively overthinking things, let me do some rudimentary maths to try and put our form into a bit more context… We’re currently averaging 1.56 points-per-game for the season. In the last ten completed seasons, stretching back to when we won this division, that PPG return would’ve been good enough for finishes of 9th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 10th, 7th, 7th, 9th, 6th and 4th. Possibly good enough to make the playoffs, especially with the standard having seemingly dropped over the last couple of years, but I think we can all agree it’s too close for comfort. The minimum PPG that would’ve guaranteed a top-seven finish in each of those ten seasons is 1.74, which translates to 80 points from a 46-game slate - six wins and a draw from our remaining seven games. Up until the King’s Lynn away game, we were averaging 1.66 PPG - this would’ve led to finishes of 6th, 7th, 6th, 7th, 9th, 5th, 6th, 8th, 5th and 4th, and would see us currently hold a six-point cushion over the sides outside the playoffs. However, in the last ten games, we’ve averaged just 1.3 PPG - if replicated over an entire season, this would lead to 11th, 12th, 13th, 12th, 13th, 14th, 13th, 13th, 13th and 14th-placed finishes, and would currently have us in 15th. In other words, bottom-half form. If we continue in this same vein for the rest of the season, we’ll finish on 1.52 PPG - good enough for 9th, 9th, 8th, 7th, 11th, 7th, 9th, 9th, 7th and 4th in previous seasons, and would have us in 8th at the moment. If we revert to roughly the sort of form we were in prior to this rocky run, we’d end up on 1.59 PPG (7th, 8th, 8th, 7th, 10th, 7th, 7th, 9th, 5th and 4th). To get back to the 1.66 PPG mark, we’d need fifteen points from the seven games - very difficult, albeit not impossible. In short, if history is anything to go by then it’ll likely go down to the wire unless we end the season extremely strongly… Current form across the whole season: playoff chances hanging very much in the balance Form before this recent run: just about playoff form Form during this run: bottom-half form If recent form continues for rest of the season: slim chance of making playoffs but far from likely If we get back to the sort of form we were in before this run: nothing guaranteed but should hopefully just about make playoffs If we end the season so well that it makes up for recent results: again, not set in stone, but playoffs highly likely Me: too much time on my hands and eagerly waiting for the first ‘Cheers Geoff’ comment Cheers Geoff. Interesting read to be fair...very analytical. Fingers crossed a miracle happens and we just starting fu****g everyone up and finish mid-playoffs!
|
|
|
Post by chesterken on Mar 13, 2024 15:19:35 GMT
In my mind I have more or less conceded that winning the playoffs if we managed to scrape in is not going to happen this season, so for me we go again with Cal at the helm and hope lessons have been learnt.
|
|
|
Post by highpeakblue on Mar 13, 2024 15:27:59 GMT
Surely when we narrowed and shortened the pitch we had a good idea of how we were going to play? Unfortunately I think it cuts down the options when plan A doesn't work, especially when you don't have a giant to lump it up to. As has been said, it also spells it out to other managers, should they wish to nullify our midfield. Then what else do we have?
I'd rather see the pitch bigger, a few players giving different options (width, height up front for a start), but I can't see Calum deviating from his plan and until he does I don't see a different ultimate outcome.
|
|
|
Post by cestrian60 on Mar 13, 2024 16:17:08 GMT
Hoping Season Ticket next season comes with a sleeping bag offer
|
|
|
Post by glosblue on Mar 13, 2024 17:01:24 GMT
Having had the best part of a day to think about it (including a 3 hour drive home after the game), I think we should cut the team and the manager a bit of slack.
Yes, results and performances haven't been great lately, but we're still in a decent position. We're (usually) very hard to beat, and we do have a midfield and forward line who can score goals on their day. If Weekes' chip goes in off the bar last night rather than clips the top, then it would have been a different game, for example.
And yes, I'd like to see us play more quickly, especially on the transition, take more risks to use space before it gets closed down, and have an obvious Plan B, but we're still there or thereabouts, so get behind the lads and let's see where we end up.
|
|
|
Post by yoshimitsu on Mar 13, 2024 17:04:59 GMT
Having had the best part of a day to think about it (including a 3 hour drive home after the game), I think we should cut the team and the manager a bit of slack. Yes, results and performances haven't been great lately, but we're still in a decent position. We're (usually) very hard to beat, and we do have a midfield and forward line who can score goals on their day. If Weekes' chip goes in off the bar last night rather than clips the top, then it would have been a different game, for example. And yes, I'd like to see us play more quickly, especially on the transition, take more risks to use space before it gets closed down, and have an obvious Plan B, but we're still there or thereabouts, so get behind the lads and let's see where we end up. Agreed. It’s disappointing but not the end of the world. Roll on Saturday where we batter Tamworth!
|
|
|
Post by yossergolf on Mar 13, 2024 18:12:50 GMT
Cal will admit that results have been poor since Christmas, although he seems to think that performances have not been as bad as the results. As a life long season ticket holder and volunteer then I’m afraid he’s I would suggest in a minority. There is very little to get you excited during the games with a lot of “safe possession” football. The performances seem to have gone backwards from last season, less intensity, and less entertaining. If we do get in the play offs then form has to drastically improve if we are to have any chance.
|
|
|
Post by oldblue72 on Mar 13, 2024 18:42:50 GMT
In my mind I have more or less conceded that winning the playoffs if we managed to scrape in is not going to happen this season, so for me we go again with Cal at the helm and hope lessons have been learnt.
|
|
|
Post by oldblue72 on Mar 13, 2024 18:43:23 GMT
But he doesn’t learn the lessons
|
|
|
Post by superhans on Mar 13, 2024 18:47:43 GMT
Thinking back to the start of the season when we started poorly, Cal switched to a 4231 at home to Kings Lynn and we battered them. Daly and Murray in wide positions, which created space for Glendon and Weeks in the middle. This again please.
But from Cals interview last night he mentions "it's not just a case of sticking players in wide positions", and that worries me. In a way it might benefit us that we didn't cling to a 0-0 last night because now he'll surely be forced to change things at home.
The next few weeks are huge. Cal rightly has lots of credit in the bank but if we end the season with a whimper and miss out on the minimum target of 7th then it would be a huge failure
|
|
|
Post by sealking on Mar 13, 2024 19:02:00 GMT
Cal mac has mentioned about us having good statistics so to him there's nothing wrong. Only statistic that will matter by end of April is our points total and it looks a up hill challenge now to reach 70pts
|
|
|
Post by boughtonblue on Mar 13, 2024 19:29:46 GMT
Thinking back to the start of the season when we started poorly, Cal switched to a 4231 at home to Kings Lynn and we battered them. Daly and Murray in wide positions, which created space for Glendon and Weeks in the middle. This again please. But from Cals interview last night he mentions "it's not just a case of sticking players in wide positions", and that worries me. In a way it might benefit us that we didn't cling to a 0-0 last night because now he'll surely be forced to change things at home. The next few weeks are huge. Cal rightly has lots of credit in the bank but if we end the season with a whimper and miss out on the minimum target of 7th then it would be a huge failure The fact that we narrowed the pitch in pre season tells us that Çal had a plan for this season at home that didn't include wingers etc. Let's see where it takes us. But yes the idea of free sleeping bags included with season tkts isn't a bad one😊
|
|
|
Post by Bluesontop on Mar 13, 2024 19:34:32 GMT
Probably get pelters for this but imagine being a player and all you have is Allcock banging on at you all game? Never shuts up and it’s utter shite. The likes of Whitehouse, Edwards, Roberts must think who the fuck he is. At least he talks to the players, all Cal does is argue with fans and Lino's! The way he talks to Neil Turner on the post match interviews is, frankly, embarrassing. Neil is a professional who has been in the media for years following Chester and I just cringe when I watch the interviews on YouTube.
|
|
|
Post by agl on Mar 13, 2024 19:40:31 GMT
If we don’t finish top 7 there needs to be some serious soul searching. The fact that Tamworth are running away with the league says it all about the standard. Bottom line is that our forwards haven’t delivered this season. Simple as that. I don’t think we were any better or worse last season, overall. Caton has been a massive disappointment and we’ve tried to muddle through without the goals he was expected to deliver. Just getting him on the pitch seems to be a big ask. Seems a long time ago we were raving about the forward line of him and Peers being the missing piece in the puzzle. How many have they got between them, given that the stats appear to suggest we create a lot of chances?
|
|
|
Post by spoonsie on Mar 13, 2024 20:54:02 GMT
If we don’t finish top 7 there needs to be some serious soul searching. The fact that Tamworth are running away with the league says it all about the standard. Bottom line is that our forwards haven’t delivered this season. Simple as that. I don’t think we were any better or worse last season, overall. Caton has been a massive disappointment and we’ve tried to muddle through without the goals he was expected to deliver. Just getting him on the pitch seems to be a big ask. Seems a long time ago we were raving about the forward line of him and Peers being the missing piece in the puzzle. How many have they got between them, given that the stats appear to suggest we create a lot of chances? It all comes back to that fateful day last season. The behaviour of the idiots on that day cost us £35k. That would have been the wages of a decent centre forward. We are our own worst enemies.
|
|
|
Post by billyw on Mar 14, 2024 7:36:06 GMT
Having had the best part of a day to think about it (including a 3 hour drive home after the game), I think we should cut the team and the manager a bit of slack. Yes, results and performances haven't been great lately, but we're still in a decent position. We're (usually) very hard to beat, and we do have a midfield and forward line who can score goals on their day. If Weekes' chip goes in off the bar last night rather than clips the top, then it would have been a different game, for example. And yes, I'd like to see us play more quickly, especially on the transition, take more risks to use space before it gets closed down, and have an obvious Plan B, but we're still there or thereabouts, so get behind the lads and let's see where we end up. Yes ‘the midfield and forward line can score goals on their day’ but their day is a Wednesday and we play Saturday and Tuesday.
|
|
|
Post by cestrian60 on Mar 14, 2024 7:55:05 GMT
Brackley play off game trouble definitely come back to haunt us, player budget knackered plus atmosphere at times this season has been flat compared to last season. Starting to feel apathy setting in again, match day experience dull and such a shame when it felt we were at last getting locals interested in the club. Three big home games to come need to get the word out there, Scunthorpe to a certain extent showed what can be done..
|
|
|
Post by weareblues on Mar 14, 2024 9:12:40 GMT
The constant reminder of stats in post match interviews when shit ain’t going our way
Where we heard that before…
|
|
|
Post by Si on Mar 14, 2024 9:32:47 GMT
If we don’t finish top 7 there needs to be some serious soul searching. The fact that Tamworth are running away with the league says it all about the standard. Bottom line is that our forwards haven’t delivered this season. Simple as that. I don’t think we were any better or worse last season, overall. Caton has been a massive disappointment and we’ve tried to muddle through without the goals he was expected to deliver. Just getting him on the pitch seems to be a big ask. Seems a long time ago we were raving about the forward line of him and Peers being the missing piece in the puzzle. How many have they got between them, given that the stats appear to suggest we create a lot of chances? Caton and Peers are a decent enough partnership at this level, but they get no service from out wide. Everything has to go through the middle and opposition know this and just pack the midfield and reduce time and space in areas where our ball playing midfielders could potentially cause damage. Everything they get is with a man on their shoulder, it seems to be hardly ever where we can get them in behind or land a cross on them.
|
|
|
Post by weststander on Mar 14, 2024 9:44:11 GMT
The main problem for me is we have too many players who play the same role and it's led to the squad and especially the midfield becoming imbalanced Glendon and Weeks are the same player. Whitehouse is also an attacking midfielder, shoehorned into the holding role . Same with Peers and Caton, small mobile forwards who occupy the same space. It's crying out for a more physical presence in midfield and upfront. To make the possession based game work, you need the strength to control the midfield and a physical presence around the 18 yard box to hold the ball up and bring others into play. ( Dackers and Sargent type players would improve the squad because it allows you to have a plan B) We saw it in the playoff game, where we lost the midfield battle and the ball didn't stick well enough upfront. And this season, at home, in recent games,has been a re run of that I get Calum's possession based game, but you need a different type of player to play it effectively. Also, it needs to be played with more intensity and with pace. 7 or 8 passes to get it to the edge of the 18 yard box only allows the opposition to put 10 men behind the ball. And once that happens we find it harder and harder to break it down. When do you last see a third man run or balls hit directly first time into the flanks or into the channels? Or score from a corner? Calum experimented in certain games last season with a 4-3-3 with Hall, Willoughby and Caton dropping to a 4-5-1 when defending. It just needs this type of variation. We have become too predictable and one dimensional
|
|
|
Post by B Block Blue on Mar 14, 2024 12:49:25 GMT
Thinking back to the start of the season when we started poorly, Cal switched to a 4231 at home to Kings Lynn and we battered them. Daly and Murray in wide positions, which created space for Glendon and Weeks in the middle. This again please. But from Cals interview last night he mentions "it's not just a case of sticking players in wide positions", and that worries me. In a way it might benefit us that we didn't cling to a 0-0 last night because now he'll surely be forced to change things at home. The next few weeks are huge. Cal rightly has lots of credit in the bank but if we end the season with a whimper and miss out on the minimum target of 7th then it would be a huge failure The fact that we narrowed the pitch in pre season tells us that Çal had a plan for this season at home that didn't include wingers etc. Let's see where it takes us. But yes the idea of free sleeping bags included with season tkts isn't a bad one😊 The pitch was shortened for the start of this season, not narrowed. It was narrowed before the start of last season.
|
|
|
Post by waggoner on Mar 14, 2024 13:26:52 GMT
Thinking back to the start of the season when we started poorly, Cal switched to a 4231 at home to Kings Lynn and we battered them. Daly and Murray in wide positions, which created space for Glendon and Weeks in the middle. This again please. But from Cals interview last night he mentions "it's not just a case of sticking players in wide positions", and that worries me. In a way it might benefit us that we didn't cling to a 0-0 last night because now he'll surely be forced to change things at home. The next few weeks are huge. Cal rightly has lots of credit in the bank but if we end the season with a whimper and miss out on the minimum target of 7th then it would be a huge failure The fact that we narrowed the pitch in pre season tells us that Çal had a plan for this season at home that didn't include wingers etc. Let's see where it takes us. But yes the idea of free sleeping bags included with season tkts isn't a bad one😊 And Bovril too?
|
|
|
Post by Neil Hunt Nonsense Potter on Mar 14, 2024 13:29:54 GMT
Seven pager when we lose. Who'da thunk it?
Some good constructive criticism, some barking mad fucking weirdos.
Deva Chat, never change.
|
|
|
Post by nytram on Mar 14, 2024 14:30:12 GMT
First player Cal signed is a winger. Adam Thomas.
|
|
|
Post by Suomen Sininen on Mar 14, 2024 15:02:46 GMT
But he doesn’t learn the lessons I think many agree that he is a tad stubborn
|
|
|
Post by Si on Mar 14, 2024 16:30:06 GMT
Seven pager when we lose. Who'da thunk it? Some good constructive criticism, some barking mad fucking weirdos. Deva Chat, never change. TBF, it would be the same at any club. A defeat will always provoke stronger opinions than a win as there's generally more to dissect and it's human nature to vent frustration rather than celebrate a win. Considering it's been a couple of pretty dismal home games, this thread is fairly well measured I'd say. Out of interest, what's your thoughts on Tuesday night?
|
|
|
Post by weareblues on Mar 14, 2024 17:02:52 GMT
First player Cal signed is a winger. Adam Thomas. In fairness fairly sure Thomas was signed before the previous season finished just wasn't announced yet
Need him back in team completly different outfit when he plays.
|
|
|
Post by Neil Hunt Nonsense Potter on Mar 14, 2024 18:42:03 GMT
Seven pager when we lose. Who'da thunk it? Some good constructive criticism, some barking mad fucking weirdos. Deva Chat, never change. TBF, it would be the same at any club. A defeat will always provoke stronger opinions than a win as there's generally more to dissect and it's human nature to vent frustration rather than celebrate a win. Considering it's been a couple of pretty dismal home games, this thread is fairly well measured I'd say. Out of interest, what's your thoughts on Tuesday night? As above, I don't disagree with some of the more constructive criticism in here. We score during the very good first 20 minutes we had and we go on to win well. Same as Saturday. Confidence is low. That isn't helped by some of the crazed bed pissing by some of those on here that have obvious axes to grind with some of our players and manager. We're in a bad spell. Doesn't make the players or manager bad, we were 2nd in the League not long back. Some of the hysteria is just mental.
|
|
|
Post by borussiachester on Mar 14, 2024 19:09:10 GMT
TBF, it would be the same at any club. A defeat will always provoke stronger opinions than a win as there's generally more to dissect and it's human nature to vent frustration rather than celebrate a win. Considering it's been a couple of pretty dismal home games, this thread is fairly well measured I'd say. Out of interest, what's your thoughts on Tuesday night? As above, I don't disagree with some of the more constructive criticism in here. We score during the very good first 20 minutes we had and we go on to win well. Same as Saturday. Confidence is low.
That isn't helped by some of the crazed bed pissing by some of those on here that have obvious axes to grind with some of our players and manager. We're in a bad spell. Doesn't make the players or manager bad, we were 2nd in the League not long back. Some of the hysteria is just mental. Agree with the general gist of what you’re saying for the most part, but it might be an idea for the players and manager to stop reading this forum or scouring through Twitter comments if doing so is affecting performances.
|
|
|
Post by Moltisanti on Mar 14, 2024 19:09:31 GMT
TBF, it would be the same at any club. A defeat will always provoke stronger opinions than a win as there's generally more to dissect and it's human nature to vent frustration rather than celebrate a win. Considering it's been a couple of pretty dismal home games, this thread is fairly well measured I'd say. Out of interest, what's your thoughts on Tuesday night? As above, I don't disagree with some of the more constructive criticism in here. We score during the very good first 20 minutes we had and we go on to win well. Same as Saturday. Confidence is low. That isn't helped by some of the crazed bed pissing by some of those on here that have obvious axes to grind with some of our players and manager. We're in a bad spell. Doesn't make the players or manager bad, we were 2nd in the League not long back. Some of the hysteria is just mental. This Especially the second paragraph. They stick out like a sore thumb.
|
|